Ugandan opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, widely known as Bobi Wine, delivered a defiant New Year’s address urging citizens to “defend their votes and flags” in the upcoming general elections on January 15.

The National Unity Platform (NUP) president accused President Yoweri Museveni’s regime of systematic oppression and warned of potential post-election violence.

Reflecting on 2025 as a year of “continued oppression” under Museveni’s four-decade rule, Wine outlined strategies to safeguard electoral victory, including self-defense measures for supporters displaying party colors—often targeted by security forces. “Uganda was not built by cowards,” he declared, calling for peaceful but resolute resistance.

With over 18 million registered voters, turnout could reach record levels, echoing memories of the disputed 2021 polls marred by violence, internet shutdowns, and mass arrests.

Crackdown on Opposition Figures

Wine’s call comes amid a broader clampdown on opposition leaders and activists:

• Kizza Besigye (FDC): Arrested over 50 times since 2001, often on charges of “inciting violence” or “treason.” HRW documented excessive force during his detentions. His party has faced splits allegedly fueled by state infiltration.
• Patrick Oboi Amuriat (FDC): The 2021 presidential candidate endured repeated arrests, including a November 2020 detention in Kitgum. He accused security forces of bias in blocking opposition rallies.
• Mugisha Muntu (ANT): Former FDC leader, now heading the Alliance for National Transformation. ANT activists have faced arrests, including Alice Komuhangi in 2023 for “incitement” over anti-corruption posts.
• NUP Supporters: Over 20 members killed and hundreds arrested since 2020. MP candidate Allan Sewanyana was detained in 2024 for “subversion.”
• Journalists/Activists: Writers like Kakwenza Rukirabashaija fled after torture in 2022; Joseph Kabuleta has been arrested multiple times. CPJ ranks Uganda among Africa’s worst for press freedom.
• Sarah Bireete: recently arrested, reason yet unknown.
• Women Opposition Figures: Winnie Byanyima (UNAIDS head) has faced threats; NUP’s Doreen Nyanjura was detained in 2023.

Human rights groups report over 100 enforced disappearances since 2021, torture in “safe houses,” and biased policing. The EU and U.S. have sanctioned officials, including former police chief Kale Kayihura, for rights abuses.

Rising Tensions Ahead of 2026

International observers warn of escalating risks as Museveni, now 81, seeks re-election, extending his tenure as Africa’s longest-serving non-monarchical leader. Wine has pledged a merit-driven transition by May 2026 if victorious, rebutting government claims of misconduct.

Both sides publicly call for peace, but the atmosphere remains tense, with opposition leaders bracing for intensified persecution as the campaign season unfolds.